Madsplaining: Europe at a Crossroad
Europe's wild elections
After 14 years out of office, Britain’s Labour Party has won a landslide victory. With a parliamentary majority rivalling Tony Blair’s 1997 win, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is promising a “new dawn”. Despite the trouncing, Labour won less votes than in previous elections. Commentators are calling the victory “shallow” and “hollow”, noting that Starmer’s “ultra-cautious, policy-lite, stage-managed campaign” was all he had to do to ride the demoralized voter base’s discontent, all the way to Downing Street.
The Spectator’s Kate Andrews argues that many “covid governments” are being punished when voters get the chance, with the economic fall out from pandemic spending, a top issue. She also notes that government “over promising and under delivering” is also a theme of this election. Previous PMs have promised protection from viruses, economic hardship and unemployment, but failed.
As is the case in many nations, bringing about change may be easier said than done. International Intrigue observed that “the UK's major parties are pretty aligned on big issues: they’re pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, and pro-Israel”. On illegal immigration, housing, the health system and the economy, Prime Minister Starmer may be spinning his wheels a while. He will likely be wrangling rookie MPs too.
With potential gridlock in many policy arenas, PM Starmer will likely look to glean wins in social policy of the progressive kind – a commitment to the insanity of Net Zero climate policies, wiping out student debt and lowering penalties for felons. Starmer dismisses trans ideology as a culture war issue and one concern on the part of Christians is that his favorability towards “conversion therapy” bans set up a clash with religious liberty.
Analysis reveals that most Tory losses went to Nigel Farrage’s populist Reform party.
Despite abundant data showing that Marine Le Penn’s National Rally party was poised for an easy victory in French elections, a coalition of left-leaning parties has won. Even President Emmanuel Macron seems to have been preparing for National Rally to win, appointing new allies into key roles days before the election. With Le Penn’s party leading in the first round of voting last week, some folks suspect some funny business may have gone on underneath. Certainly, Macron had coordinated an effort to have a number of candidates drop out of the race, preventing split tickets and the right wing from consolidating power. Le Pen’s 28-year-old lieutenant Jordan Bardella, said the “dishonorable” tactic had pushed France further into the arms of the radical left.
An update 7/8/24: Analyst Louis-Vincent Gave had some insights to help us foreigners understand the election result. To those lamenting that socialism has swept France, he quips “maybe socialism swept France a long time ago.” While the French population is generally conservative, he says inept right-wing parties allow progressives to control the agenda.
President Macron’s play has worked to keep the much-feared right-wing out of power, but Gave argues it may be just prolonging the inevitable. In a situation that seems quite relatable, Gave says France has three distinct voting blocks – city elites, their servant class and regional citizens who are fed up with crumbling public services. While the right is spilt with various factions, he believes groundswell support for more conservative policies is growing.
For many years, the President has been running completely irresponsible fiscal policies and the EU must approve his next budget, due in September. If the EU rejects his plans for increased spending and insists on austerity, Gave says there will be riots.
While many have hyped the danger of rising anti-semitism from a new fascist right, it is Muslim immigration which poses the biggest threat to Jews. Gave says right now, if he was a Jew, he would consider leaving France.
After almost seven months, the Netherlands has a new government. Dick Schoof, a former head of intelligence who is not aligned with any party, will lead a coalition which corporate media describe as “the most right-wing” ever. (Politico)