Madsplaining: Oval Office Rorschach

History contains multitudes

President Trump and Vice President Vance were recently joined by Ukraine’s President Zelensky in a meeting described by media as “tense” and “heated”. The White House meeting was ostensibly the tail end of negotiations over a mining agreement which would see Ukraine’s mineral wealth tapped to help recoup U.S. money given for Ukraine’s war effort against Russia. It was presumed that President Zelensky would sign a deal at the end of the meeting and give a press conference later that day. Although the conversation lasted around 50 minutes, clips you’ll see online of testy exchanges were from the very end of the discussion.

So, who was the bully? Who was ambushing whom? Who was posturing for the cameras? Who was sending “red meat” messages to their supporters? The answers to these questions have become a sort of inkblot test – it depends what you think you see.

To steel man the supporters’ arguments:

Trump supporters:

The president was statesman-like, overlooking several incidents of Zelensky talking over him and his claims that Europe had done more for Ukraine than the U.S.

Trump is pitching a realistic peace plan to a beleaguered nation which has very few cards left to play. He is using his power to do what’s best for America and the world.

He only lost his cool after Zelensky insisted that Russia would soon be a threatening “influence” on the U.S.A. if it did not help Ukraine beat them back.

Zelensky supporters:

Ukraine’s president is a hero who has stood against the might of Russia by using aid rendered resourcefully.

He is a fighter who is only trying to get back what rightly belongs to his country. If he must concede territory, then he is right to pursue security for his people, since Putin is a dodgy neighbor who has broken all his promises.

Having given up its nuclear capacity for security assurances from the West, it is understandable that Zelensky would feel compelled to try to push the U.S. into doing more to put Putin back in his box.

Then, the detractors on both sides..

Trump critics:

He’s an egotistical buffoon who knows nothing about history or geopolitics, embarrassing the U.S. and estranging all her friends.

He is ignoring Ukraine’s wishes and rescinding the Biden era promise that the U.S. would support Ukraine as long as it takes.

Trump only wants his own glory by having some sort of flimsy ceasefire tied to his name. And anyway, he doesn’t like Zelensky and can’t put aside his personal vendettas – he reacted badly because he was still sore over being corrected by two world leaders.

He’s Russia’s puppet.

His blatant disregard for the “post-World War II consensus” has alienated European allies. This will be the end of NATO and cooperation between the Five Eyes. Lack of support for Ukraine will embolden China and Russia.

His hubris will cause World War III.

Zelensky critics:

He is the bully, playing the part of a wounded bird when he was challenged rather than acknowledging his precarious position as a supplicant to the U.S.’ benevolence.

He is a corrupt and unpopular president who has disregarded the will of his people, dragging the war on for his own vanity and through his petulance.

He is ungrateful and deliberately provoked the president and vice president, which was simply to score points with allies and gin up sympathy from warhawk bankrollers.

He may have hoodwinked European leaders but the U.S. will have none of it.

His hubris will cause World War III.

[The same division was found in opinions on the participation of Vice President Vance. Some said he ambushed Zelensky to provide the administration with an excuse to pull the plug on support of Ukraine. Others said the Zelensky had no business introducing new questions when the conversation was winding up and the vice president was right to be upset.]

It’s safe to guess there is no love lost between the men given their public record of insults and such, but the meeting had been mostly cordial. Perhaps world leaders speak to each other like this behind closed doors, but Joe Public is not often privy to such conversations, especially on live television, so the shock was palpable. European leaders quickly expressed their support of Ukraine and said they would provide peacekeeping troops and lots of money. Whether they have the money, munitions or men to fight is another thing. Back home, those who back Ukraine to the hilt posted their embarrassment and anger about being an American.

I lay out all these hot takes to illustrate a trap; one that is especially dangerous for us in this age of abundant and instant information . While much of the commentariat is so sure it knows what this all means, some humility is always valuable when thinking about geopolitical events and what they portend. The man to find the most salient historical analog is a prophet, one to follow to discover how the curve of history must be bending. But it’s a Rorschach test. This inkblot looks like Chamberlain selling Poland out to Hitler. It looks like FDR and Churchill manoeuvring the world into WWII. Putin’s actions remind one of how Stalin was willing to “just kept throwing bodies at the Eastern Front until they overwhelmed the Nazis.” They think it is just like the Reykjavik Summit where a single mistranslation nearly unraveled the Cold War’s end.

But can we know what is in the heart of a man? What is it that Putin wants – Old Soviet glory? Deterring NATO from its near abroad? De-Nazifying Ukraine? Maybe just securing a warm water port on the Black Sea. Yes, human behavior follows patterns, but the endless Oval Office commentary proves how difficult it is to discern even Trump and Zelensky’s motives—let alone predict what Putin might do. Likewise, human history has some echoes, but what the future holds is uncertain. Your inkblot might obscure the tangled history between Moscow and Kiev or the fallout from U.S.’ political interference during the 2014 color revolution. Not to mention the now infamous biolabs and the tendency of American kleptocrats to launder their self-serving schemes by taking advantage of Europe’s most corrupt nation. Anyone trying to reduce the situation to a simple narrative is probably leaving things out.

Even now, some believe every effort should be made to defeat Russia decisively and force it to return captured territory. But it is unclear how that could happen, nor what Ukraine’s supporters would be willing to pay. President Trump’s mineral deal (which seems to be back on the table, now) may not be as much of a deterrent to future Russian meddling as it is purported to be–reports claim that almost 50% of Ukraine’s mineral deposits lie under territory now annexed by Russia. Ukraine clearly has a lot of voices whispering in its ear – from the Biden administration’s mixed messages and lawmakers urging the Ukrainian president to hold out for a better deal. The Trump administration had indicated that a mineral deal would just be the beginning of the peace process, but what comes next is unknown.

Whether the world is in for more turmoil or times of peace and prosperity is hard to guess. It is good to let history teach us, but also to realize its limitations to tell us what to do now. So, let’s pray. Especially for men who hold power over the lives of many.